July 23rd, 2015 MLB Betting Tips

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Updated: July 23, 2015

Sometimes we make a pick and we’re just wrong. Yesterday’s pick of the Mariners and Mike Montgomery was a good example of this. He’d been pitching well, but his peripherals showed he probably wasn’t that good. We decided to ride his good fortune and then he gave up 8 runs in the third inning. It happens, we’re wrong sometimes.

Other times we make a pick, are completely correct in our analysis and still lose. The best example of the season of this happened yesterday as the Red Sox and Astros failed to go under. This pick was mostly based on the quality of starter Joe Kelly who went for the Red Sox. I thought he would do badly against the Astros and guess what? He did badly. He gave up three homeruns in 5 1/3 innings, but those three homers only accounted for four runs and the game went under. It happens, baseball happens.

And while our tip yesterday of Marlins/Diamondbacks under also did not come through. My fantasy lineup of a Astros mini-stack (Preston Tucker and Evan Gattis being the big ones) and Jose Fernandez led me to victory in multiple leagues including a 6th place finish in a GPP. In the end, it was a good day overall.

Enough about the past though, let’s get into the now. Specifically, let’s get into today.

MLB Tips and Daily Fantasy Advice:

In the early slate I LOVE the Oakland Athletics against the Toronto Blue Jays. Scott Kazmir has looked amazing lately. Two of his last three starts have seen him go eight or more innings and give up only a single run in each. The other start he left early due to an injury, but he was pitching well and it seemed more precautionary than anything else. He always pitches well in the warehouse in Oakland and even with the tough competition, it should be more of the same.

On the other side is my favorite punching bag in gambling and fantasy, Drew Hutchison. I think Hutchison is a fine pitcher, but for whatever reason he has been getting absolutely killed on the road this season. He has an 8.81 ERA and a .372 BAA against in his road starts and the A’s are the kind of team that can jump on that. This one could get ugly.

UPDATE: Drew Hutchison has been scratched due to illness and RA Dickey is taking his place. Our pick remains unchanged.

Bet Oakland -127 at: 5Dimes

Mini-stack Oakland hitters in the early game at: FanDuel

The battle of Missouri kicks off tonight as the Cardinals face the Royals in St. Louis. The top team in the National League and the top team in the American League facing off in a potential World Series battle. That might be a fun idea for the people of Missouri, but for the rest of us? Let’s hope not. This isn’t the eighties.

Still, this should be a good game and great series. Tonight’s match-up features John Lackey (2.90 ERA/1.24 WHIP) going against Chris Young (3.13 ERA/1.04 WHIP). They have both pitched great this season, but they have both been helped by their defense and luck. If we go by xFIP this is a match-up of a 4.99 pitcher (Young) versus a 4.02 pitcher (Lackey). When you are facing an offense as good as these two, that luck tends to fade away. I fully expect this one to go over the posted total.

Bet Over 7 Runs at: Bovada

In a late game, the Brewers take on the Diamondbacks in Arizona. The Diamondbacks promoted minor leaguer Zack Godley for this game and this seems like a bit of an aggressive move that could blow up in their faces tonight. Godley pitched well at Single-A, but after being promoted to Double-A Mobile this season he has just a 5.14 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in three starts. And now he’s in the majors against a tough offense? 17 days ago he gave up 6 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings against the Pensacola Blue Wahoos. I like the Brewers chances in this one.

Bet Brewers -132 at: Bovada
Bet Over 8.5 Runs at: Bovada

Stack Brewers hitters in your lineup at: DraftKings