September 16th, 2015 MLB Betting & DFS Tips

Updated: September 16, 2015

Well, I’m still here. Despite my best efforts I did not win the big MLB Super Grand Slam on FanDuel and I’m back here to write another day. Things might have been different if I took my own advice and put a few Oakland hitters in my lineup. I had that game tagged for an over and the Athletics ended up scoring 17 runs. I had White Sox, but no As and I paid for it. I still cashed a lineup, but that hurts. When you saw it, but didn’t do it. That’s… tough.

All we can do is move on though and today we have a whole new opportunity to do something good. There are a few games I like for targeting today that qualify as under the radar. That’s where I live with my lineups, beating the bookies over/under predictions and thus building underutilized value fantasy lineups. Does it always work? No. I need to keeping working and learning to perfect it. That’s the hill I live on though.

MLB Betting and Daily Fantasy Baseball Tips:

Two of the top offenses with a low total (7.5) tonight is the Reds and Giants. I don’t quite get this one as these two teams have scored in bunches the last two nights and could easily do so again with the pitchers on the mound. Jake Peavy is definitely in the twilight of his career with a 4.26 FIP on the season and low strikeout rates. He just can’t miss bats anymore and Votto and company could make him pay. He goes against rookie Michael Lorenzen who probably wishes he could go back to Triple-A. 5.59 FIP with a 1.68 WHIP, lefties are hitting a gargantuan .439 wOBA against him. Brandon Belt is definitely on my roster tonight as this one goes over the total.

Bet Over 7.5 Runs at:

Stack Giants lefties at:

The Cardinals and Brewers continue their series tonight and I’m all over the Cardinals. They go against Wily Peralta who is just not a very good pitcher. While he’s had a few quality starts in his past few outings, he just seems like he’s headed for a regression. His walk rate is as high (or as low, depending on your point of view) as his walk rate and he’s just gotten worse in the second half. His 4.84 xFIP is exploitable for hitters and I expect the Cardinals to do a lot of that tonight. I’m stacking Cardinals in DFS and betting the Cardinals run line to go over.

Bet Over Cardinals Over 4 Runs at:

Stack Cardinals hitters at:

The Cubs and Pirates continue their battle tonight and this one just doesn’t seem fair. Jake Arrieta has been excellent this season for the Cubs and he is their ace. He goes against AJ Burnett who was once an ace a long time ago. This is Burnett’s second start since coming off the DL and that is always a tough one for a pitcher returning from injury. Burnett’s numbers before the DL showed a guy on a sharp decline, allowing 5+ in three starts, and I think we see that guy again tonight. Cubs hitters have some upside, but you are going to have to pay for them.

Bet Cubs -150 at: