2016 AL Cy Young Award Betting Odds

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Updated: February 29, 2016

The Cy Young award is probably one of the toughest to predict in all of baseball. One bad month can knock a starter out of the running and you just never can tell who is going to get hurt, get traded or lose their stuff. Even if you can predict all that, you can’t predict who people will vote for. This is one of the hardest categories to bet on which is why last year’s winner, Dallas Keuchel, is +600 to win this thing. The Cy Young award isn’t just about the best pitcher, it’s about the best pitcher that season having the best season he’s had. That involves luck and that’s what makes this such a tough category.

Chris Sale at +250 is the favorite here and for good reason. He led the AL in strikeouts per 9IP last season at 11.818 and with a much better team expected this season, he should get a few more wins. He probably should’ve won this award in 2014 when he posted a 2.17 ERA, but his terrible team only got him to 12 wins. This is a solid play.

The biggest acquisition of the offseason was David Price (+300) for the Red Sox. He could make a big difference for this team and their offense should help him rack up the wins. He won 18 games last season and led the AL in ERA at 2.45. He had a good case last year and if he can repeat that performance while the Red Sox turn around and return to the playoffs, he should be in the running for this award.

The two Cleveland candidates are very interesting. Corey Kluber +350 won this award a couple of years ago and Carlos Carrasco +750 is one of the best young pitchers out there right now. This Cleveland team should be very good this season, but the problem with candidates from the same team is always the worry that they could potentially split the vote.

A sleeper play would have to be Sonny Gray at +1400. This guy was third in WAR and third in ERA in the American League last season. Is he one of the best pitchers in baseball? Probably just below that, but he pitches in a great park that keeps the ERA down and he has been very solid for two straight seasons. His FIP and strikeout numbers aren’t quite there though so he’d need a season like Keuchel had last year to pull this off.

For an even deeper sleeper, how about Jose Quintana at +8000? It’s a SUPER deep sleeper, but there are signs here. He finished 8th in the AL in pitcher WAR last season and is entering his age 27 season which is often a player’s prime. He had a 2.81 FIP in 2014 and if he can better that number… he still needs a lot of help, but still. He’s a good pitcher who should get just a little bit more respect than +8000.

Complete odds are below. You can bet any of these at http://www.5Dimes.com

Chris Sale (CWS)   +250
David Price (BOS)   +300
Corey Kluber (CLE)   +350
Dallas Keuchel (HOU)   +600
Felix Hernandez (SEA)   +600
Carlos Carrasco (CLE)   +750
Chris Archer (TAM)   +1200
Sonny Gray (OAK)   +1400
Cole Hamels (TEX)   +2000
Garrett Richards (LAA)   +2000
Danny Salazar (CLE)   +2500
Marcus Stroman (TOR)   +3300
Justin Verlander (DET)   +3300
Masahiro Tanaka (NYY)   +5000
Yordano Ventura (KAN)   +5000
Taijuan Walker (SEA)   +5000
Carlos Rodon (CWS)   +5000
Michael Pineda (NYY)   +5000
Jordan Zimmermann (DET)   +5000
Collin McHugh (HOU)   +6600
Jose Quintana (CWS)   +8000
Jake Odorizzi (TAM)   +8000
Ian Kennedy (KAN)   +10000
Luis Severino (NYY)   +10000
Rick Porcello (BOS)   +20000