April MLB Props: Odds of Amazing Feats

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Updated: November 22, 2016

5Dimes put out some monthly propositions for April 2017 that are pretty interesting and since this is generally a slow news time I thought we’d take a look at them and the odds of them happening. Spoiler alert: It doesn’t look good.

Will there be a triple play in April? YES +335 NO -505

This seems like a pretty solid bet. There have been 709 triple plays in MLB history with a whopping seven of them coming last season including two in April. Between 2009 and 2016 there has been an April triple play in all but one season. For whatever reason it feels like players are somewhat more likely to hit into a triple play in April than not.

Will there be an unassisted triple play in April? YES +1500 NO -4500

There have only been 15 unassisted triple plays in MLB history and none since 2009. Add a zero to this one and maybe I’ll bet on it.

Will there be a no-hitter in April? YES +200 NO -280

There have been 293 no-hitters in MLB history dating back to 1875 according to Baseball Reference . Of those 293 no-hitters, only 39 of them occurred in the month of April. Although there have been two in the last four seasons. That said, the odds of this happening are pretty slim. Although, Jake Arrieta did accomplish this feat last April.

Will there be a perfect game in April? YES +1400 NO -3600

There have been only 23 no-hitters in MLB history. Much like the unassisted triple play, if you added a zero to this I might think about it. As it is, forget about it.

Will a player hit for the cycle in April? YES +290 NO -410

The odds of a cycle are roughly the same as a no-hitter as there have been just 289 cycles in MLB history. Only 23 of these cycles have come during the month of April. The last of which came on April 27th, 2012 as Scott Hairston complete the feat. The odds of this happening are really low and the odds aren’t really in our favor here.

Will a batter have 6+ hits in a game? YES +525 NO -975

I’m assuming this means more than six hits and that is just ridiculous. Only two players have ever had seven hits in a nine inning game. Even if you add in extra innings, which this bet apparently doesn’t allow, you only have four more players. Why not just have it at six hits, which is something that has been done a bit more often but is still super rare?

Even if this one means 6 (or more) hits, it’s still a joke as it has only happened 100 times in MLB history.

Will a batter have 4+ homeruns in a game? YES +1600 NO -4800

Only 16 players have ever hit four homeruns in a game and it hasn’t happened since 2012 when Josh Hamilton did it. Add a zero.

MLB – April 2017 – Monthly Propositions
three outs credited all on same play, includes extra innings
A triple play in a game +335
No triple play in April -505
three outs credited all on same play, includes extra innings
An unassisted triple play in a game +1500
No unassisted triple play in April -4500
multiple pitchers combining to throw a no hitter also applies, includes extra innings|
A pitcher throws no hitter in a game +200
No hitter does not occur in April -280
multiple pitchers combining to throw a perfect game also applies, includes extra innings
A pitcher throws a perfect game +1400
No perfect game occurs in April -3600
single + double + triple + home run, includes extra innings
A player hits for cycle in a game +290
No player hits for cycle in April game -410
first nine innings only, extra innings hits do not apply
A batter 6+ base hits in a game +525
No batter 6+ base hits in April game -975
includes extra innings
A batter 4+ home runs in a game +1600
No batter 4+ home runs in April game -4800

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