Projecting the 2017 World Series

Updated: December 14, 2016

With many of the big moves of the offseason now done, I thought now would be a good time to take a look at Fangraphs Projected Standings and compare them to the current Bovada World Series odds. Fangraphs gets the projected standings by using a combination of Steamer and ZiPS projections. These aren’t perfect or set in stone, but give us a good idea of what 2017 might look like.

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Of course, it is still early and there are still moves to be made. The projection systems will likely update and things could look much different than they do today. That being said, let’s take a look and see where we’re at right now.

Team Wins Losses Bovada Odds
Dodgers 95 67 +1400
Cubs 95 67 +400
Red Sox 93 69 +550
Astros 90 72 +1200
Nationals 90 72 +750
Indians 89 73 +1200
Giants 88 74 +1400
Cardinals 85 77 +2500
Angels 85 77 +7500
Mets 84 78 +2000
Mariners 84 78 +2500
Yankees 83 79 +1400
Tigers 83 79 +2800
Rangers 82 80 +2500
Blue Jays 82 80 +2200
Pirates 82 80 +4000
Rays 82 80 +7500
Marlins 80 82 +6600
Royals 79 83 +3300
Diamondbacks 79 83 +10000
Athletics 78 84 +10000
Rockies 78 84 +7500
Orioles 76 86 +2800
Braves 76 86 +7500
Twins 75 87 +10000
White Sox 71 91 +6600
Phillies 70 92 +10000
Reds 69 93 +10000
Padres 66 96 +10000
Brewers 63 99 +10000

The Dodgers are the team that stick out here as they lead the board. They re-signed Rich Hill, Justin Turner and Kenley Jansen this offseason and are still poised to add a second baseman. They have the best pitcher in the game in Clayton Kershaw and are generally considered to be one of the deepest teams in baseball. Considering that you can still get them at +1400 on Bovada, they might be the best bet on the board.

We wrote extensively about the Red Sox when they made the big trade to add Chris Sale and at the time we said they were the best bet at +1000. Hopefully you got in at that number as they are now all the way down to +550. That is still a pretty good value as they are +12 wins over the next best AL East team. The offensive core is the thing with these guys as Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley and Mookie Betts are all young and still improving. They will be in the playoffs.

Of course, the other best team is still the Chicago Cubs. The only real moves they’ve made are swapping out Dexter Fowler for Jon Jay and adding Wade Davis while they let Aroldis Chapman walk. The core of this team is all young with Anthony Rizzo, MVP Kris Bryant, Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber all locked up for years to come. They are the current favorite at +400 and there is no argument here on that one.

The Washington Nationals are always hanging out here as well. They improved by making a big trade for Adam Eaton to add to an already scary offense with Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy and Trea Turner. The pitching staff is still great, but they desperately need a closer. They missed out on Jansen and will need to fill that hole. At +750 and a projection of 90 wins, they aren’t the best bet with the two best teams in baseball projected to also be from the National League.

It’s hard not to like the Astros +1200 though. Right now they are projected to be the second best team in the American League behind the Red Sox, but it feels like they aren’t done. They could be adding a starter (Jose Quintana has been rumored) that should shoot up their projection. They made some nice moves this offseason, adding Josh Reddick was nice, but the core of this team is Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa who should all have great seasons next year. This is a team to be afraid of.

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