PECOTA is in and they love Houston, Seattle and LA

Updated: February 8, 2017

PECOTA projections are in! Baseball Prospectus’ projection system now has their 2017 numbers in and the results are pretty interesting. Last season PECOTA was a big winner against the spread last season as they went 18-12 against the Bovada lines and an even more impressive 15-5 when the odds differed by two wins. The win totals aren’t out yet, but there is still a lot to be learned from the projections.

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The big surprise here has got to be the St. Louis Cardinals who PECOTA sees as a 76-win team. That would be their first time under .500 since 2007 and you have to go back all the way to 1999 to find a worse record. That would be a pretty big shock. We’ll have to dig deeper into these numbers, but we should note that Fangraphs Projected Standings has them at 84 wins. This is a pretty huge difference between the two sites.

We talked about the Orioles last week outdoing their projections and PECOTA hates them a lot more than the Fangraphs standings do. They are at 73-89 in these standings and it is definitely starting to feel like the run might be over. That starting pitching is just so bad and PECOTA has them at 813 runs allowed, the most in all of baseball.

Hilariously, PECOTA hates the Royals again. Death, taxes and PECOTA hating the Royals.

On a more positive note, the Houston Astros look to bounce back in a big way. They are showing a top-3 offense and the best runs allowed in the American League. That is… surprising considering that the Cleveland Indians exist. The Indians offense projects as best in the AL and these two teams are projected for big things. The Astros at 93 wins, best in the AL, and the Indians right behind them at 92. All hail player development.

PECOTA also sees the longest playoff drought in baseball coming to an end as the Seattle Mariners win the AL Wild Card at 87 wins. We’ve written about Jerry DiPoto’s moves this offseason and they look to be paying off in a big way. Fingers crossed, Mariners fans.

The National League looks like more of the same. The Dodgers and Cubs are the two best teams by a lot, the Nationals and Mets battle for the NL East with the loser going to the Wild Card and the Giants also win a Wild Card. In fact, those five teams are the only teams in the National League expected to have a record over .500 with only the Pirates at exactly .500. Nine teams under .500 seems like a lot and you have to think that one team will surprise.

Complete projections are below. For more information about PECOTA check out Baseball Prospectus.

American League

East W L
Boston Red Sox 90 72
Tampa Bay Rays 84 78
New York Yankees 81 81
Toronto Blue Jays 81 81
Baltimore Orioles 73 89
Central W L
Cleveland Indians 92 70
Minnesota Twins 80 82
Detroit Tigers 78 84
Chicago White Sox 76 86
Kansas City Royals 71 91
West W L
Houston Astros 93 69
Seattle Mariners 87 75
Texas Rangers 84 78
Los Angeles Angels 78 84
Oakland Athletics 75 87

National League

East W L
New York Mets 88 74
Washington Nationals 87 75
Miami Marlins 77 85
Atlanta Braves 76 86
Philadelphia Phillies 74 88
Central W L
Chicago Cubs 91 71
Pittsburgh Pirates 81 81
Milwaukee Brewers 76 86
St. Louis Cardinals 76 86
Cincinnati Reds 74 88
West W L
Los Angeles Dodgers 98 64
San Francisco Giants 86 76
Arizona D-backs 78 84
Colorado Rockies 76 86
San Diego Padres 70 92

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