Pirates outfield shift could lead to big improvements

By
Updated: February 8, 2017

In a very interesting move, the Pirates announced the following outfield shift for the 2017 season:

After a detailed evaluation, various considerations and many conversations, we have discussed with each of our outfielders the defensive alignment that we will employ. That alignment will be Gregory in left field, Starling in center and Andrew in right. We believe this alignment will maximize our outfield production.

Our men were very professional and respectful of the team and each other throughout the process, and are selfless in helping us strengthen our team defensively.

Top MLB Sportsbooks
5Dimes
Nitrogen
Bovada
This is an interesting move for a lot of reasons. The first and most obvious one being what this does to Andrew McCutchen. He is, without a doubt, the face of this franchise and the only true superstar that they have had since Barry Bonds, but at the same time his struggles in 2016 have a 1:1 correlation to the Pirates struggles in 2016. His numbers were down across the board in 2016, but it was his defensive numbers that really stood out as poor. He had -12.6 defensive runs saved last season which put him as one of the worst centerfielders in the league. It’s hard to imagine this move happening if he was more middle of the road, but he hurt the team so badly last season that we’re here.
His replacement, Starling Marte, has been one of the best defensive left fielders in all of baseball over the past two years. He has been worth 24 and 19 defensive runs saved. For reference sake, +15 is elite, +10 is very good, -10 is very bad and -15 is awful. This definitely feels like the smart move from a purely baseball standpoint. It’s when egos get involved that things become muddled. Still, if we’re to believe the statement above then everyone is on board with this and there will be no drama.

The third man in this equation is Gregory Polanco who has been an above average fielder in right, but now moves to left that has a lot more ground to cover.

We can’t say how this will affect any of these players. Maybe McCutchen is just a bad fielder now and he’ll be just as bad as he was in center. Maybe Marte is a good left fielder, but a horrible center fielder. Maybe Polanco isn’t that good and left field will expose him. We don’t know. We do have to assume that the Pirates know what they’re doing though and that they think this will improve the team. So, let’s try and figure out just how much that it will.

Let’s take a quick look at a table. Below you’ll find the 2016 defensive numbers of the three Pirates outfielders. The first three percentage numbers are the percent of balls hit that are caught. IE 90-100% of fielders catch these balls, this is what percent this player caught. Then you have Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and DEF which includes a positional adjustment.

Name Pos 40-60% 60-90% 90-100% DRS UZR DEF
Andrew McCutchen CF 21.40% 54.60% 99.30% -28.0 -23.0 -16.5
Starling Marte LF 33.30% 81.80% 98.70% 19.0 11.6 2.5
Gregory Polanco RF 71.40% 100.00% 98.40% 4.0 5.9 1.2

Based on this, it’s easy to see why McCutchen is out and Marte is in. McCutchen really struggled on the 60%-90% plays and Marte shone. Since we know that left field is more spacious than right at PNC Park then we should feel that his transition shouldn’t be as much of a shock. The 40-60% and 60-90% numbers on Polanco are encouraging as well for a smooth transition. Assuming McCutchen improves, which seems like a definite, this outfield shift could change the entire franchise’s fortunes in 2017.

The absolute best case scenario would be that Marte does the exact same thing he did last year only now he is playing center, Polanco sees no drop off and McCutchen ends up somewhere between 0 and -5. That would be over 40 defensive runs saved. If we assume that 10 runs = win, that’s four wins. Their current projection has them at 82 wins (assuming McCutchen in center), this would put them at 86 which would put them in the thick of the Wild Card.

Even a more pessimistic view would have this at something like a two win improvement. Heck, even putting Marte as exactly average would improve this team greatly. Throw in a better 2017 with the bat for McCutchen, a healthier Gerrit Cole and a full season of Jameson Taillon and the Pirates might surprise some people this season. This is definitely a team to watch in 2017 as they have the potential to be very dangerous once again.

Best Sportsbooks to bet MLB

Sportsbook Reason Link
5Dimes Dynamic Odds, Fast Transactions
Nitrogen Sports Anonymous Bitcoin Sportsbook
Bovada.lv One of the Largest Online Sportsbooks

4 Comments

  1. Pingback: National League Pennant Betting Odds - Baseball Bryan

  2. Pingback: Odds to win 2017 NL Central - Baseball Bryan

  3. Pingback: 2017 NL Cy Young Winner Odds - Baseball Bryan

  4. Pingback: 2017 NL MVP Odds - Baseball Bryan

Leave a Reply