National League Pennant Betting Odds

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Updated: February 10, 2017

We covered the American League Pennant odds yesterday and today we’re onto the National League Pennant odds. The NL is a weird one this year with PECOTA only projecting five teams to be above .500. The top teams will do very well this year and the rest will be left with the scraps.

The top betting option is, of course, the World Champion Chicago Cubs at +175. The core of Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo on offense and Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks on the pitching side is one of the best in baseball. The defense should once again be at the top of the league and there are reasons to be encouraged by the bullpen with Wade Davis and Carl Edwards Jr. leading the way. Still, it’s been awhile since a team repeated as league champions (2010/2011 Texas Rangers) and the odds will be against them.

Surprisingly, the next team up is the Washington Nationals at +510. We wrote about our concerns regarding them yesterday so we won’t get too in-depth into them here. I feel safe saying that if Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper are all able to stay healthy, this will be a playoff team. Any slight change to that and I’m no longer as sure. It should also be noted that the Nats weren’t even picked to win the division by PECOTA as you will see below.

Both projections systems see the Los Angeles Dodgers as the best team in all of baseball, but they come in third for NL Pennant odds at +565. This team will be dangerous as they have no clear weaknesses and are the deepest team in all of baseball. Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball and this year he’ll be joined by Rich Hill and Julio Urias who should both be far above average. Throw in Brock Stewart, Kenta Maeda and a revolving door of players from the Dodgers excellent system and this pitching staff should league the league in runs allowed. The offense led by Corey Seager and Justin Turner should be good again and this team as a whole just feels dangerous. A great bet.

The Mets are +760 and that is an interesting play if you believe in the health of the pitching staff. Last season Noah Syndergaard was the only one to make it out unscathed. If they can have better health from Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz and Matt Harvey; they should once again be be battling the Nationals for the NL East. The only problem with both of these teams is that there is only one division winner. This far out, you want some certainty that the team you pick will at least be in the final four and you can’t honestly say that about the Nationals or Mets. One of them is likely to be a Wild Card and could be eliminated after one game.

The Giants at +810 are the only other likely playoff team according to projections, but the Wild Card conundrum comes into play there as well. If you were going to take a “wild card” Wild Card team, you might want to look at the Pirates at +2300. We wrote about them Wednesday and the defensive improvement could mean the Pirates are back in contention.

Complete odds are below with win projections from Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus. You can bet any of these at http://www.5Dimes.com

Fangraphs W L Baseball Prospectus W L AL NL Pennant World Series
Cubs 94 68 Cubs 91 71 +175 +400
Nationals 90 72 Nationals 87 75 +510 +1100
Dodgers 95 67 Dodgers 98 64 +565 +1100
Mets 84 78 Mets 88 74 +760 +1500
Giants 87 75 Giants 86 76 +810 +1800
Cardinals 84 78 Cardinals 76 86 +1170 +2500
Rockies 79 83 Rockies 76 86 +1950 +4000
Pirates 82 80 Pirates 81 81 +2300 +5000
Marlins 79 83 Marlins 77 85 +3400 +8000
Diamondbacks 77 85 Diamondbacks 78 84 +5000 +12000
Braves 74 88 Braves 76 86 +6000 +15000
Phillies 71 91 Phillies 74 88 +6000 +15000
Brewers 68 94 Brewers 76 86 +8500 +20000
Padres 66 96 Padres 70 92 +8500 +20000
Reds 70 92 Reds 74 88 +9500 +25000

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