Who will have the most homeruns in 2017?

Updated: February 20, 2017

The 2017 season is nearly upon us and information is coming at us quickly. 5Dimes just released their annual odds for the most homeruns for the 2017 season. Last season was the second season in a row in which an Oriole won it as Mark Trumbo took the title. Chris Davis won it in 2015.

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Those two are a really good example of just how hard this one is to pick as in 2015 Davis had 47 homeruns and was one of the favorites for 2016, but ended up with “only” 38 in 2017. Trumbo had 22 in 2016 and 47 in 2017. Swing changes made the difference for him and there’s no real way of telling who will make an adjustment like that this year. This is simply a fun thing to pick and shouldn’t be taken too seriously.

That said, let’s take a look at the top twenty five in homeruns over the past three seasons combined. This should allow for some of the noise surrounding injuries to be removed and we can see who has done best. The list is:

Name Homeruns
Nelson Cruz 127
Edwin Encarnacion 115
Chris Davis 111
David Ortiz 110
Josh Donaldson 107
Mike Trout 106
Todd Frazier 104
Chris Carter 102
Nolan Arenado 101
Albert Pujols 99
Jose Bautista 97
Anthony Rizzo 95
Brian Dozier 93
Giancarlo Stanton 91
Jose Abreu 91
Khris Davis 91
Yoenis Cespedes 88
Justin Upton 86
Adam Jones 85
Manny Machado 84
J.D. Martinez 83
Matt Kemp 83
Mark Trumbo 83
Kyle Seager 81
Miguel Cabrera 81

It’s interesting to look at this list and compare it to the odds below. Nelson Cruz is the homerun king of the past three seasons, but he’s pretty far down the list at +3000. Aging and his ballpark probably have something to do with that, but that is still pretty jarring and as good as a value as you’ll see here. The same can be said about Encarnacion who is all the way down at +4000.

The favorites here seem to be guys who big power like Stanton and Davis. It’s surprising to see Machado ranked so high, but after an Oriole won it the past few years I guess it’s understandable. He’s young enough to make a big jump and the Orioles love hitting dingers. Nolan Arenado is definitely benefitting from the Coors Field effect in these odds as well. These odds seem to match up well with the Steamer projections at Fangraphs as well.

Name Steamer HRs
Chris Davis 35
Giancarlo Stanton 34
Nolan Arenado 34
Mike Trout 33
Manny Machado 33
Nelson Cruz 33
Kris Bryant 32
Mark Trumbo 32
Anthony Rizzo 31
Josh Donaldson 31

For fun, let’s take a look at two more stats. 2016 flyball percentage and 2016 hard hit percentage. Fly ball is pretty simple. If the ball is a fly it has a chance to go out. The more flyballs, the more possible homeruns. Hard hit is the same principle. You kill the ball, it goes out. Simple.

Name Flyball %   Name Hard hit %
Todd Frazier 48.70% David Ortiz 45.90%
Chris Carter 48.70% Freddie Freeman 43.50%
Brian Dozier 47.70% Matt Carpenter 41.90%
Salvador Perez 47.10% Mike Trout 41.70%
Evan Longoria 46.80% Miguel Cabrera 41.10%
Nolan Arenado 46.70% Kendrys Morales 41.10%
Adam Duvall 46.70% Jose Bautista 41.10%
Stephen Vogt 46.50% Yasmany Tomas 41.00%
Brandon Belt 46.00% J.D. Martinez 41.00%
Kris Bryant 45.80% Chris Carter 40.50%
Josh Donaldson 40.40%

I thought those numbers might help clarify things, but they only just added more names to the list. Chris Carter sticks out there, but it’s hard to say how many chances he’ll get to hit homeruns this year on the Yankees. They have a lot of names in their lineup and it’s hard to see where he’ll get at-bats with Matt Holliday at DH and Greg Bird at first. (Of course, we haven’t even mentioned his teammate Gary Sanchez who set the world on fire last year with homeruns after the trading dealine and he’s +4000.)

Brian Dozier is an interesting name. JD Martinez at +6000 is an interesting name. Eric Thames coming out of Korea where he hit all the homeruns at +10000 is real interesting. There is a lot to chew on here which is what helps make baseball the rich, interesting sport that it is. Homeruns require so much talent, but also so much luck that this feels impossible to pick.

Check out the full odds below and let us know your picks for 2017 homerun champion. I’m going with Nelson Cruz.

MLB Regular Season
Most Home Runs

Giancarlo Stanton   +750
Chris Davis   +1500
Manny Machado   +1500
Nolan Arenado   +1500
Kris Bryant   +1600
Bryce Harper   +2000
Josh Donaldson   +2000
Kyle Schwarber   +2000
Mark Trumbo   +2000
Miguel Sano   +2000
Mike Trout   +2000
Nelson Cruz   +3000
Anthony Rizzo   +4000
Edwin Encarnacion   +4000
Gary Sanchez   +4000
George Springer   +4000
Miguel Cabrera   +4000
Paul Goldschmidt   +4000
Todd Frazier   +4000
Trevor Story   +4000
Brian Dozier   +5000
Rougned Odor   +5000
Khris Davis   +5500
Yoenis Cespedes   +5500
Adam Duvall   +6000
Chris Carter   +6000
J.D. Martinez   +6000
Jose Abreu   +6000
Jose Bautista   +6000
Justin Upton   +6000
Mookie Betts   +6000
Carlos Gonzalez   +6500
Carlos Correa   +6500
Ian Desmond   +7000
Adrian Beltre   +8000
Corey Seager   +8000
Evan Longoria   +8000
Freddie Freeman   +8000
Joey Gallo   +8000
Maikel Franco   +8000
Aaron Judge   +8500
Adam Jones   +10000
Addison Russell   +10000
Adrian Gonzalez   +10000
Albert Pujols   +10000
Andrew McCutchen   +10000
Brad Miller   +10000
Buster Posey   +10000
Carlos Santana   +10000
Charlie Blackmon   +10000
Corey Dickerson   +10000
David Dahl   +10000
Eric Hosmer   +10000
Eric Thames   +10000
Eugenio Suarez   +10000
Hanley Ramirez   +10000
Jay Bruce   +10000
Joc Pederson   +10000
Joey Votto   +10000
Jorge Soler   +10000
Justin Bour   +10000
Justin Turner   +10000
Kendrys Morales   +10000
Kyle Seager   +10000
Lucas Duda   +10000
Marcell Ozuna   +10000
Matt Holliday   +10000
Matt Kemp   +10000
Mike Napoli   +10000
Mitch Moreland   +10000
Nomar Mazara   +10000
Robinson Cano   +10000
Ryan Braun   +10000
Stephen Piscotty   +10000
Tommy Joseph   +10000
Troy Tulowitzki   +10000
Wil Myers   +10000
Xander Bogaerts   +10000
Yasiel Puig   +10000
Yasmany Tomas   +10000
Evan Gattis   +20000
Ian Kinsler   +20000
Nick Castellanos   +20000

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