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2017 AL Cy Young Winner Odds
The 2017 AL Cy Young betting odds are out and these are always interesting to look at. Last year’s odds were fair and well reasoned, but the winner ending up coming out of nowhere. Rick Porcello was +20000 in last year’s odds and I’d love to say that we picked him, but we didn’t. Let’s see if we can dig into this thing and figure out who might win this year’s award.
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Chris Sale is the favorite at +300 and for good reason. He’s been fantastic on terrible teams for the past couple of seasons and is going to one of the best teams in the American League. It’s hard not to like him here, but I would offer a bit of caution. There is always an adjustment period for a pitcher when he changes teams. We saw this last year with David Price and we could see that again with Sale this year. Infields are different, mounds are different, outfields are different and just about everything is different. He’ll still be very good, like Price was last year, but there is going to be an adjustment.
Which is actually why David Price might be a good value at +1000. His xFIP and FIP were better than his ERA. There is a bit of worry about him though as his strikeout rate dropped in the second half. Still, just like Sale (and Porcello for that matter) this guy is going to be on a very good team and should get a lot of wins.
A very interesting name here is Aaron Sanchez +1200 of the Toronto Blue Jays. He won the ERA crown in the AL last year and probably could’ve won this award if it wasn’t for his innings limit that cost him some starts in the second half. He finished with a killer 15-2 record, a 3.00 ERA and his FIP was in the top ten as well at 3.55. If he can up his innings this year while giving the same level of production, it’s hard to imagine the voters forgetting about him.
Corey Kluber +400 very easily could’ve won this award last year, but didn’t. He’s always a threat to win. I actually like his teammate Carlos Carrasco at +1000. He was injured in the second half, but before that he was having his worst season in two years. That might not seem like a good reasoning, but I am thinking he’ll bounce back strong this year with high strikeout numbers and high wins as the Indians should be one of the best teams in baseball this year. Danny Salazar at +4000 is also worth a look, but that is a bit harder to see.
For a sleeper, I like Felix Hernandez at +2000. I might just be a Seattle fanboy, but I really like that team and I think that he will rebound from his worst season. I don’t quite think of him as the best pitcher in baseball or anything, but he could have a high win total and his defense will definitely help to keep his ERA down. He’s in great shape and could come back to steal this. Ideally, he has a Justin Verlander type of comeback as Verlander very nearly won this award last year.
Of course, he could get competition from his own teammate in James Paxton who is currently +9000 at 5Dimes. He was definitely their ace last season and he had one of the highest average fastballs in the major leagues. If he can put it all together he might be my favorite sleeper on this list.
The only other sleeper that I am taking a look at is Marcus Stroman at +4000. He was 9th in FIP in the American League last year, but his ERA was a lot higher. That could be because of bad HR/FB luck (his career high) and a bad BABIP. He has a really high ground ball rate and if those are turning into hits, that is going to cost him. He’ll never be a high strikeout guy, but with a bit better luck in those two categories I could see him having a tiny ERA and 20-win season.
Complete odds as of March 14th, 2017 from 5Dimes.
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