2017 NL Cy Young Winner Odds

Updated: March 8, 2017

The NL Cy Young betting odds are slightly better than the AL Cy Young betting odds in that there are simply less candidates. That doesn’t mean that someone not listed here couldn’t win, but NL pitching is much more top heavy and thus more (seemingly) predictable.

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The best pitchers in the National League are really good and I would be surprised if the winner isn’t Clayton Kershaw +150 or Noah Syndergaard +900. This isn’t to say that there aren’t other good candidates (I really thought that Kyle Hendricks should’ve won last season) just that these guys put up such good seasons that if they stay healthy they are deserving.

Let’s take a look at last year’s FIP leaders though just for fun and see if we can discover anything.

Name Team Wins IP K/9 ERA FIP XFIP
Noah Syndergaard Mets 14 183.2 10.68 2.60 2.29 2.67
Jose Fernandez Marlins 16 182.1 12.49 2.86 2.30 2.56
Johnny Cueto Giants 18 219.2 8.11 2.79 2.96 3.42
Kyle Hendricks Cubs 16 190 8.05 2.13 3.2 3.59
Max Scherzer Nationals 20 228.1 11.19 2.96 3.24 3.37
Madison Bumgarner Giants 15 226.2 9.97 2.74 3.24 3.54
Jon Lester Cubs 19 202.2 8.75 2.44 3.41 3.47
Jake Arrieta Cubs 18 197.1 8.67 3.1 3.52 3.68
Kenta Maeda Dodgers 16 175.2 9.17 3.48 3.58 3.7
Jon Gray Rockies 10 168 9.91 4.61 3.6 3.61

It’s surprising to me how good of a case Jonny Cueto actually had last season, but the strikeouts are never there for him and that is something they often look at. Scherzer was a deserving winner last year thanks to that high strikeout total and innings pitched. It really felt like last year was Bumgarner’s year, but that win total was a bit too low.

Sad to be talking about win totals for Cy Young winners in 2017, but that’s what the voting from last year tells us. This award should probably just be a combination of FIP, xFIP and innings pitched. That’s not the world we live in yet, but hopefully one day.

There are two interesting pitchers at +3300 this year. Gerrit Cole who nearly won this award in 2015 and then had an injury plagued 2016. If he can return to form this season on what should be a better Pirates team, he could make some noise in the voting. Kyle Hendricks is another pitcher I like who I thought should’ve won last year with that minuscule 2.01 ERA. I think he could prove that wasn’t a fluke and have another great year this year.

Of course, Hendricks has a lot of competition on his own team as Jake Arrieta was the 2015 winner and Jon Lester had a good case last year as well. It feels like these three will steal votes from each other and that will be it for the Cubs. I’m sure the Cubs would much rather have that World Series trophy than the Cy Young award so I imagine they’re okay with it.

Funnily, the pitcher who ranks tenth in FIP is Jon Gray and there aren’t even odds on him. He’s a great young pitcher, but him ever winning this while playing his home games at Coors Field seems extremely unlikely. So unlikely that Bovada didn’t even feel like putting odds on it.

Honestly, this is Clayton Kershaw‘s award to lose. He was the best pitcher in the league last season and then an injury took the award away from him. If he’s healthy this year that won’t happen again. This guy is just on another planet and there is no one who can touch him right now…

With the possible exception of Noah Syndergaard. The ERA, FIP, xFIP and strikeouts were all there last year. He just needs the innings and wins. This could be a fun race.

Complete Bovada odds are below:

Odds to win the 2017 National League Cy Young Award

Clayton Kershaw +150
Max Scherzer +300
Madison Bumgarner +900
Noah Syndergaard +900
Jake Arrieta +1400
Jon Lester +1400
Stephen Strasburg +1400
Johnny Cueto +1600
Jacob deGrom +2000
Zack Greinke +2000
Matt Harvey +2000
Carlos Martinez +3300
Gerrit Cole +3300
Kyle Hendricks +3300
Kenta Maeda +3300
Adam Wainwright +3300

Complete 5Dimes odds as of March 14th, 2017.

National League – Cy Young Odds

Clayton Kershaw   +135
Max Scherzer   +350
Noah Syndergaard   +1000
Stephen Strasburg   +1600
Madison Bumgarner   +1600
Jake Arrieta   +2000
Jacob deGrom   +2500
Jon Lester   +2500
Julio Teheran   +3250
Kenta Maeda   +3300
Matt Harvey   +3300
Johnny Cueto   +3300
Gerrit Cole   +4000
Zack Greinke   +4000
Carlos Martinez   +4000
Adam Wainwright   +4000
Kyle Hendricks   +5000
Rich Hill   +5000
Tanenr Roark   +6600
Jeremy Hellickson   +6600
Jon Gray   +8000
Aaron Nola   +8000
Taijuan Walker   +9000
Mark Melancon   +9000
Dan Straily   +9000
Kenley Jansen   +9000
Bartolo Colon   +15000
Jameson Taillon   +15000
RA Dickey   +15000
Jeff Samardzija   +15000
Raisel Iglesias   +20000

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