2017 PECOTA Win Totals Update

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Updated: March 8, 2017

Baseball Prospectus has updated their depth charts for PECOTA which has caused a shift in some of the win projections. While most of these moves are just +1 or -1, there are a few big movers.

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The Boston Red Sox see their projection drop by four wins which could be related to worries about David Price‘s injury. While Price doesn’t have an MCL injury and shouldn’t require surgery, there is still a question there as there always is with an injury. (It probably doesn’t help his AL Cy Young case odds.) Of course, this is just speculation on my part. It could very well be because it looks like Pablo Sandoval will play more. I haven’t dug in deep enough to tell you either way.

The Dodgers also saw a -3 win hit which just seems like the system is being reasonable. Los Angeles will be good this year, but some of the projections about them have just been insane.

Other notable drops were Seattle from 87 to 85 which makes them seem like less of a playoff lock and Washington from 86 to 88 which makes them seem like more of one.

Team Total PECOTA 2/7 PECOTA 3/7 Differential
Arizona Diamondbacks 77.5 77 78 0.5
Atlanta Braves 74.5 76 77 2.5
Baltimore Orioles 80.5 74 74 -6.5
Boston Red Sox 92.5 90 86 -6.5
Chicago Cubs 96.5 91 92 -4.5
Chicago White Sox 69.5 76 74 4.5
Cincinnati Reds 70.5 75 76 5.5
Cleveland Indians 93.5 92 91 -2.5
Colorado Rockies 80.5 76 77 -3.5
Detroit Tigers 83.5 79 79 -4.5
Houston Astros 90.5 93 93 2.5
Kansas City Royals 76.5 71 72 -4.5
Los Angeles Angels 79.5 78 79 -0.5
Los Angeles Dodgers 94.5 98 95 0.5
Miami Marlins 77.5 78 77 -0.5
Milwaukee Brewers 70.5 76 78 7.5
Minnesota Twins 74.5 80 80 5.5
New York Mets 87.5 88 89 1.5
New York Yankees 83.5 82 80 -3.5
Oakland Athletics 73.5 75 76 2.5
Philadelphia Phillies 72.5 74 74 1.5
Pittsburgh Pirates 83 80 81 -2
San Diego Padres 66.5 69 73 6.5
San Francisco Giants 88.5 86 86 -2.5
Seattle Mariners 85.5 87 85 -0.5
St. Louis Cardinals 83.5 76 76 -7.5
Tampa Bay Rays 78.5 84 83 4.5
Texas Rangers 85.5 85 84 -1.5
Toronto Blue Jays 85.5 81 82 -3.5
Washington Nationals 91.5 86 88 -3.5

Our best bets at the time we posted our original MLB Win Total analysis were:

  • St. Louis Cardinals Under 83.5
  • Baltimore Orioles Under 80.5
  • Chicago White Sox Over 6.5
  • Chicago Cubs Under 96.5
  • Tampa Bay Rays Over 78.5
  • Washington Nationals Under 91.5
  • Kansas City Royals Under 76.5
  • Milwaukee Brewers Over 70.5
  • Minnesota Twins Over 74.5

And all of those still hold. You can now also add to that list.

  • Cleveland Indians Under 93.5
  • San Diego Padres Over 66.5
  • Oakland Athletics Over 73.5
  • New York Yankees Under 83.5

The Oakland line is especially interesting to me as Fangraphs had them pegged as an over as well. That means that both projection systems agree on them and I would list that as one of my favorites.

The Padres remind me of the Brewers and Braves last year in that they are going to be bad, but not quite as bad as you would think. They don’t really have a great roster, but they do have some interesting pieces and they will still play other teams that are just as bad as them. Basically, losing 90+ games is hard to do. Even when you are trying.

On the flip side, I’d throw the Indians in there with the Cubs in that it’s hard to win 90+ games. They will be very good, they will most likely win their divisions; but projecting over 93 wins is hard to do. You need a lot to go right.

As always I would recommend using your discretion when taking any of these bets. While PECOTA was 15-5 in “two plus” projections against Bovada last year, that is no guarantee that they will be again this year. That said, I like PECOTA’s chances.

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