2017 AL MVP Odds

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Updated: March 14, 2017

In the NL MVP odds it was all about Kris Bryant and Bryce Harper, but in the American League it’s all about Mike Trout. And why not? He’s been the best player in the league in every full season he’s played and he’s only going to be 25 this season. Last season was his best by OPS thanks to a huge, league leading .441 on base percentage. That’s not many points off from being on-base in every other at-bat. Can he hit that level at some point? I wouldn’t put anything past Mike Trout. He is the best player in baseball and I don’t even think it’s close. Bet on Trout. If the writers know what they are doing they will keep giving him this award as long as he’s healthy.

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Of course, they don’t always know what they are doing. Sometimes they don’t give it to the best player because the best player isn’t on a good team. Trout beat these odds last season, but if someone can play reasonably close to him this year and the Angels suck again; I could see someone stealing this award. I don’t like the Angels chances this year so I am thinking there is a good chance that Trout could miss out on this award again if they miss the playoffs. It’s not a great play, but it could happen.

For this one, I’m looking at playoff teams. That means Red Sox, Indians and Astros. There are other good teams in the league, but I think that these three are the most sure things in the AL this year.

For the Red Sox, it’s gotta be Betts. He nearly won this thing last year and another strong season could see him right back in it. The Red Sox always get a lot of media attention as well which definitely doesn’t hurt.

It’s a two-man race in Houston with Jose Altuve +1200 and Carlos Correa +1800. I like Correa slighty more here as he has yet to have the huge breakout that many expect from him. We often forget that he is only 22 years old and is coming off a 4.9 WAR season. He should only get better and if he does that this year, he could be hard to argue against.

My favorite pick for the Indians isn’t listed in the odds for some reason. Francisco Lindor is their best player by far and he’s not even listed here? That’s weird and definitely someone that was overlooked. I’ll update when they fix this.

Finally, a quick look at the top 10 WAR projections for American League hitters from ZiPS:

Name HR AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA WAR
Mike Trout 35 .292 .41 .557 .968 .405 8.0
Josh Donaldson 34 .276 .372 .525 .897 .379 6.3
Carlos Correa 27 .28 .358 .489 .847 .360 5.7
Mookie Betts 24 .307 .361 .504 .865 .368 5.7
Manny Machado 32 .289 .349 .511 .860 .363 5.6
Francisco Lindor 17 .298 .351 .454 .804 .343 5.3
Jose Altuve 17 .319 .367 .473 .840 .356 5.1
Kyle Seager 26 .265 .337 .463 .800 .341 4.2
Kevin Kiermaier 13 .258 .316 .426 .742 .319 3.9
Brian Dozier 31 .255 .330 .485 .815 .345 3.7

With all due respect to Machado who will be great, but should be on a bad team, the name that jumps out to me here is Kyle Seager. He is a guy that just gets better and better every season. I’d really give him a hard look as the Mariners should make some noise this season. Seager  (like Lindor he is also not currenly listed) or Robinson Cano at +3300 could be a steal here. This team hasn’t made the playoffs since 2001 and if they do it this year, that will be a feel good story which should get them some award consideration.

Complete AL MVP odds from 5Dimes are below.

American League – MVP

Mike Trout   +130
Mookie Betts   +525
Miguel Cabrera   +1150
Jose Altuve   +1200
Josh Donaldson   +1600
Manny Machado   +1800
Carlos Correa   +1800
Gary Sanchez   +2050
Robinson Cano   +3300
Jason Kipnis   +4000
Nelson Cruz   +4000
Victor Martinez   +5000
Adam Jones   +5000
Justin Upton   +5000
Jose Abreu   +5000
Todd Frazier   +5000
Chris Davis   +6600
Xander Bogaerts   +6600
Jackie Bradley Jr   +6600
Lorenzo Cain   +6600
Jose Bautista   +6600
Carlos Santana   +6600
Jean Segura   +6600
Ian Kinsler   +8000
Troy Tulowitzki   +8000
Evan Longoria   +8000
Adrian Beltre   +8000
Mark Trumbo   +8000
Edwin Encarnacion   +9000
Eric Hosmer   +9000
Alex Gordon   +9000
Khris Davis   +15000
Dustin Pedroia   +15000
Jacoby Ellsbury   +15000

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