2017 NL MVP Odds

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Updated: March 14, 2017

The 2017 NL MVP Betting odds have been released and it looks like a two-man race between the last two winners. 2015 winner Bryce Harper and 2016 winner Kris Bryant. These two are projected to be two of the best hitters in the game and their respective teams are both expected to be playoff contenders which makes the odds on them quite logical.

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Of course, baseball isn’t always logical. One of them could get injured, someone else could have a career year or some team could come out of nowhere to steal their playoff spots. It’s baseball, anything can happen.

The players I am keeping my eye on are guys like Anthony Rizzo at +1200 and Daniel Murphy at +2500. They are on the same team as the two big favorites and there is no reason to think that they couldn’t contend. There is a pretty good argument that Murphy could’ve won this award last season with his .347/.390/.595 line. Rizzo always seems like he could have a really big season one of these years. A little HR luck, a ton of RBIs and another great Cub team makes him a really viable candidate here.

MLB MVP awards are typically tied to playoff teams so I’m probably going to cross Freddie Freeman, Joey Votto and Paul Goldschmidt off this list. Based on the projection systems, I think I’ll write off Nolan Arenado as well.

Could this be Corey Seager’s year? He impressed a lot as a rookie, plays a premium position and could take a step forward. It’s not all that dissimilar from the path that Kris Bryant took to this award last year. The thing with Seager is, to me, he is pretty clearly the best hitter on that team so he won’t have a teammate stealing votes like Harper or Bryant. Justin Turner is the only real challenger there, but he’s not as an attractive pick as Corey Seager.

We tagged the Pirates as an under the radar Wild Card contender earlier this year and a leap like that could see one of their players get serious consideration. Former MVP Andrew McCutchen is the obvious name here, but what about Starling Marte at +6600? His .311/.362/.456 line from last year probably isn’t quite enough to get it done, but if he can add some big power to go with great defense in centerfield then… maybe? It’s a stretch.

Finally, let’s just take a quick look at the ZiPS projections for 2017 in the National League.

Name
HR AVG OBP SLG OPS wOBA WAR
Kris Bryant 33 0.274 0.372 0.512 0.884 0.376 5.8
Anthony Rizzo 33 0.28 0.382 0.529 0.911 0.385 4.8
Nolan Arenado 38 0.291 0.343 0.567 0.91 0.376 4.7
Bryce Harper 29 0.28 0.406 0.521 0.926 0.389 4.4
Corey Seager 22 0.28 0.327 0.468 0.795 0.337 4.3
Buster Posey 14 0.295 0.359 0.451 0.81 0.345 4.3
Paul Goldschmidt 27 0.29 0.403 0.514 0.918 0.385 4.2
Joey Votto 21 0.291 0.421 0.493 0.913 0.388 4.1
Andrew McCutchen 24 0.278 0.371 0.477 0.849 0.361 4
Freddie Freeman 26 0.281 0.382 0.498 0.88 0.373 3.7

 

The name that jumps out to me here is Buster Posey. If he can bounce back big with the bat, he could return to MVP status in 2017. It is no secret to anyone just how valuable he is to the Giants and with their playoff hopes looking strong, it’s harder to imagine him not getting at least a few votes.

Complete National League MVP odds are below.

National League MVP

Kris Bryant   +300
Bryce Harper   +350
Nolan Arenado   +775
Anthony Rizzo   +1200
Freddie Freeman   +1600
Corey Seager   +1600
Daniel Murphy   +2500
Justin Turner   +3300
Joey Votto   +3300
Kyle Schwarber   +3300
Paul Goldschmidt   +3300
Buster Posey   +4000
Yoenis Cespedes   +4000
Adrian Gonzalez   +5000
Ian Desmond   +5000
Andrew McCutchen   +5250
Matt Carpenter   +6600
Javier Baez   +6600
Trea Turner   +6600
Carlos Gonzalez   +6600
Starling Marte   +6600
Jonathan Villar   +8000
Giancarlo Stanton   +8000
Joc Pederson   +9000
Gregory Polanco   +9000
Ryan Braun   +9000
A.J. Pollock   +9000
Anthony Rendon   +9000
Maikel Franco   +9000
Hunter Pence   +9000
Wil Myers   +9000
Christian Yelich   +9000
Billy Hamilton   +15000
Adam Duvall   +15000

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