MLB Props: Pitcher Win Totals

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Updated: March 16, 2017

Here’s a fun prob bet: pitcher win totals. These are interesting because you are not only betting on who will be good, but also who stays healthy. That second part is the risky part as you just never know with a pitcher. The human body wasn’t meant to throw 90 miles per hour a hundred times a game.

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Wins, of course, are not exactly a scientific measure. We see it all the time. A guy throws seven innings of 1-run ball and loses while another guy throws five innings and gives up five runs and wins. It’s not exactly fair, but the very best pitchers seem to do well in this category year-to-year.

5Dimes put out a bunch of these recently so let’s take a look at them one by one and see what we can come up with. Please note that a pitcher needs to start one of the first five games in order for this bet to be in play. We’ll start off as any good discussion of pitching does with the best pitcher in the game.

Total Wins – Clayton Kershaw

Over  16½ pitching wins   -115
Under  16½ pitching wins   -115

Last season was the first time in four years that Clayton Kershaw didn’t have at least 16 wins thanks to an injury. However, he’s only topped 16 wins twice in his career. The Dodgers look like a great team this year, but this number just feels a bit too perfect.

Total Wins –  Max Scherzer

Over  15½ pitching wins   -115
Under  15½ pitching wins   -115

I feel a lot better about this one. Scherzer has gone over this total in four out of the past five seasons. Not only that he has been the picture of health as he has started 30+ games in eight straight seasons. The Nationals will be good and I could easily see Scherzer getting 16+ this year. OVER

Total Wins –  Corey Kluber

Over  15½ pitching wins   -115
Under  15½ pitching wins   -115

He’s won 18 in two of the past three season, but the one year he didn’t (2015) he went 9-16. That year was a disaster all around for the Indians though and it’s hard to see this year being like that. The only worry I have about this one is injury. Kluber will be 31 this season and he put on a lot of miles with the World Series run last year. Going OVER, but with reservations.

Total Wins –  Chris Sale

Over  15½ pitching wins   -135
Under  15½ pitching wins   +105

Sale has played on some bad White Sox teams over the years and only went over this number twice in his career. I think there will be some adjustment to Fenway Park that could cost him some games early. Not feeling the over or the under on this one.

Total Wins –  Madison Bumgarner

Over  15½ pitching wins   -115
Under  15½ pitching wins   -115

I don’t love this and here’s why: last season he had a career best 2.74 ERA and a career high 34 starts. He finished with 15 wins. The Giants bullpen was a big issue last season and it’s supposed to be improved this year, but I’ll believe it when I see it and I’ll be avoiding this one.

Total Wins –  Carlos Carrasco

Over  13½ pitching wins   -115
Under  13½ pitching wins   -115

Never won more than 14 games in a season. Coming off an injury. Swollen elbow. UNDER, but I doubt this will even be in play as starting the season on the DL is a real possibility.

Total Wins –  Jake Arrieta

Over  15½ pitching wins   +100
Under  15½ pitching wins   -130

Coming off seasons of 22 and 18 wins, this total seems low. The Cubs are once again going to be the class of the NL Central and the defense should be amazing. No reason not to go OVER on this one.

Total Wins –  Jon Lester

Over  15 pitching wins   -115
Under  15 pitching wins   -115

Career average of 16 wins per 162 game season. Best team in baseball. That defense. OVER, but it will be close.

Total Wins –  Dallas Keuchel

Over  13½ pitching wins   -115
Under  13½ pitching wins   -115

A 20-win pitcher who won the Cy Young in 2015 to a 9-12 record and 4.55 ERA in 2016. He’s probably splitting the difference between those two pitchers and that’s basically what this win total is, but I just don’t like it. Staying away.

Total Wins –  Justin Verlander

Over  14 pitching wins   +115
Under  14 pitching wins   -145

He’s beaten this total in three of the past five seasons, but those were Tigers teams that were much better offensively. He’ll be 34 this season and I could see a DL stint. 14 wins feels right on the money.

Total Wins –  Noah Syndergaard

Over  13½ pitching wins   -105
Under  13½ pitching wins   -125

OVER! This may be my favorite line on the board.

Total Wins –  Johnny Cueto

Over  13½ pitching wins   -115
Under  13½ pitching wins   -115

He went 18-5 last year as his stuff seemed perfectly suited for AT&T Park. He goes deep into games and this line is pretty low considering what he just came off of. OVER

Total Wins –  Chris Archer

Over  13½ pitching wins   -115
Under  13½ pitching wins   -115

At 9-19, was Archer the unluckiest pitcher in the league last year? Maybe. Still, he’s never gone over 12 in his four seasons in the league and I’m not quite ready to take that two win jump this year.

Total Wins –  Yu Darvish

Over  12½ pitching wins   -125
Under  12½ pitching wins   -105

This is low. He’s an injury risk, but last season he won 7 in just seventeen games. In 2014, he won 10 in just twenty-two. He just needs a full season, which reports say he’s ready, and he can reach the teens. A risky OVER.

Total Wins –  Carlos Martinez

Over  13½ pitching wins   -120
Under  13½ pitching wins   -110

The Cardinals ace has gone over this number the past two seasons. While his team might be a bit worse, I don’t think he will suffer at all. OVER

Total Wins –  Rick Porcello

Over  14½ pitching wins   -115
Under  14½ pitching wins   -115

He won a career best 22 games last year en route to a Cy Young win for the Red Sox. He’ll have that offense pumping him up again this year and the gains he made on the mound look like they are for real. OVER

Total Wins –  Cole Hamels

Over  13½ pitching wins   +100
Under  13½ pitching wins   -130

His win totals last four season: 8, 9, 13, 15.

He’s finishing with either 13 or 15 this year. Too close to call.

Total Wins –  Masahiro Tanaka

Over  12½ pitching wins   -115
Under  12½ pitching wins   -115

He won 14 last year in a career high 31 starts. If he can get to that level again this year, this should be an OVER. The Yankees are better than we think.

Total Wins –  Jacob deGrom

Over  11½ pitching wins   -115
Under  11½ pitching wins   -115

This total is low. I believe that he is healthy this year and 12 wins does not seem that far out of the question. The Mets will be a playoff team and deGrom will be their #2 starter. OVER

Total Wins –  Gerrit Cole

Over  12½ pitching wins   -115
Under  12½ pitching wins   -115

In 2016 his walks went up, his strikeouts went down and his hits allowed went up. Staying away from this one.

Total Wins –  Kyle Hendricks

Over  13½ pitching wins   -115
Under  13½ pitching wins   -115

16-8 last year. I believe that Kyle Hendricks is for real and last year was no fluke. Could be the best pitcher in this rotation this year. OVER

Total Wins –  Zack Greinke

Over  12½ pitching wins   -115
Under  12½ pitching wins   -115

My heart sadly says under, but even with his struggles and DL stint last year he still won 13 games.

Total Wins –  Felix Hernandez

Over  12½ pitching wins   -115
Under  12½ pitching wins   -115

Put it this way, if the Mariners are to make the playoffs he has to go over this number. I think that Mariners will make the playoffs so OVER, but just barely.

Total Wins –  Danny Duffy

Over  12 pitching wins   -115
Under  12 pitching wins   -115

He broke out as a starter last season going 12-3 in twenty-six starts. He should get more starts than that this year, but the Royals don’t look that good. I feel like this number is right on.

Total Wins –  Marcus Stroman

Over  11½ pitching wins   -125
Under  11½ pitching wins   -105

He went 9-10 last year when he made 32 starts, a career high. There was definitely some bad luck mixed in there, but I just don’t feel comfortable going over.

Total Wins –  Michael Fulmer

Over  11 pitching wins   +100
Under  11 pitching wins   -130

Won 11 games in 26 starts en route to the Rookie of the Year last year. He did come into spring with a sprained ankle so he could be a slow starter. Sophomore pitchers can struggle. I think I’ll just stay away.

Total Wins –  Stephen Strasburg

Over  13½ pitching wins   -115
Under  13½ pitching wins   -115

Last year he won 15 games in just 24 starts. That’s awesome, but it’s the 24 starts that worries me. He has a hard time staying healthy and if he can only be counted on for that many starts, it’s too small of a window to count on.

Total Wins –  Aaron Sanchez

Over  12½ pitching wins   -120
Under  12½ pitching wins   -110

15-2 last season with the best ERA in the American League. I think he’s for real. OVER

Total Wins –  Sonny Gray

Over  10½ pitching wins   -105
Under  10½ pitching wins   -125

A lat strain has him not throwing for the next three weeks so it’s doubtful that he makes a start in the first five games, but I would definitely go UNDER here. He was worse than bad last year with a 5.69 ERA and I just don’t see the bounce back coming.

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