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MLB Props: Player Home Run Totals
With Opening Day just right around the corner, we have our final batch of MLB props. This time we have single player homerun totals. This is a tough one as you just never know who is going to be struck by a freak injury or how many balls are just going to fall just short (or fall into Mike Trout‘s glove) that wouldn’t have last year. Power is consistent, but homeruns can be wildly inconsistent.
Take for instance, Chris Davis. Nobody would argue that this guy has a ton of power, but contact is always an issue with him. His homerun totals over the last five seasons are: 33, 53, 26, 47 and 38. Can you see a pattern there? The year with 26 is a bit of an outlier, but he also only played 127 games that year. Add another thirty and he would be over thirty, so he’s at least consistent on that front.
So, power isn’t always enough. What we’re looking for here is mostly consistency and a decent odd. One name that pops off the page to me is Nelson Cruz. He’s hit 40 or more homeruns in three consecutive seasons and, based on his showing in the World Baseball Classic, shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon. His total is set at just 33.5 which gives you quite a bit of wiggle room based on his history. Still, he is a bit of an older player.
Jose Bautista is another interesting case. He had an injured year last year, but still hit 22 in 116 games. With his total set at 26.5 you’re basically betting on his health. I’m expecting a big year from him so this is a great value play.
The best bet out there is Nolan Arenado. He’s hit 40+ in his past two seasons and plays all of his home games at homer-happy Coors Field. His total is at 35.5 so there is a bit less wiggle room in there, but this is still the best bet there is. He’s young, he plays in Coors and he’s really great.
Complete odds from 5Dimes are below. Take a look and make your picks. There isn’t much time, the season starts Sunday!