MLB Props: Player Home Run Totals

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Updated: March 31, 2017

With Opening Day just right around the corner, we have our final batch of MLB props. This time we have single player homerun totals. This is a tough one as you just never know who is going to be struck by a freak injury or how many balls are just going to fall just short (or fall into Mike Trout‘s glove) that wouldn’t have last year. Power is consistent, but homeruns can be wildly inconsistent.

Take for instance, Chris Davis. Nobody would argue that this guy has a ton of power, but contact is always an issue with him. His homerun totals over the last five seasons are: 33, 53, 26, 47 and 38. Can you see a pattern there? The year with 26 is a bit of an outlier, but he also only played 127 games that year. Add another thirty and he would be over thirty, so he’s at least consistent on that front.

So, power isn’t always enough. What we’re looking for here is mostly consistency and a decent odd. One name that pops off the page to me is Nelson Cruz. He’s hit 40 or more homeruns in three consecutive seasons and, based on his showing in the World Baseball Classic, shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon. His total is set at just 33.5 which gives you quite a bit of wiggle room based on his history. Still, he is a bit of an older player.

Jose Bautista is another interesting case. He had an injured year last year, but still hit 22 in 116 games. With his total set at 26.5 you’re basically betting on his health. I’m expecting a big year from him so this is a great value play.

The best bet out there is Nolan Arenado. He’s hit 40+ in his past two seasons and plays all of his home games at homer-happy Coors Field. His total is at 35.5 so there is a bit less wiggle room in there, but this is still the best bet there is. He’s young, he plays in Coors and he’s really great.

Complete odds from 5Dimes are below. Take a look and make your picks. There isn’t much time, the season starts Sunday!

Giancarlo Stanton
Over  34½ home runs   -115
Under  34½ home runs   -115
Chris Davis
Over  35½ home runs   -115
Under  35½ home runs   -115
Mike Trout
Over  32½ home runs   -130
Under  32½ home runs   +100
Nolan Arenado
Over  35½ home runs -135
Under  35½ home runs +105
Nelson Cruz
Over  33½ home runs -140
Under  33½ home runs +110
Manny Machado
Over  33½ home runs -130
Under  33½ home runs +100
Bryce Harper
Over  31½ home runs -130
Under  31½ home runs +100
Anthony Rizzo
Over  30½ home runs -130
Under  30½ home runs +100
Josh Donaldson
Over  31½ home runs -125
Under  31½ home runs -105
Kris Bryant
Over  34½ home runs -115
Under  34½ home runs -115
Edwin Encarnacion
Over  33½ home runs -125
Under  33½ home runs -105
Miguel Cabrera
Over  30½ home runs -130
Under  30½ home runs +100
Carlos Gonzalez
Over  25½ home runs -115
Under  25½ home runs -115
Mark Trumbo
Over  33½ home runs -130
Under  33½ home runs +100
Khris Davis
Over  27½ home runs -170
Under  27½ home runs +140
Miguel Sano
Over  29½ home runs -105
Under  29½ home runs -125
Jose Bautista
Over  26½ home runs -135
Under  26½ home runs +105
Todd Frazier
Over  31½ home runs -135
Under  31½ home runs +105
Jose Abreu
Over  26½ home runs -135
Under  26½ home runs +105
George Springer
Over  27½ home runs -115
Under  27½ home runs -115
Justin Upton
Over  27½ home runs -135
Under  27½ home runs +105
Yoenis Cespedes
Over  29½ home runs -115
Under  29½ home runs -115
Adam Jones
Over  26½ home runs -115
Under  26½ home runs -115
Kyle Schwarber
Over  28½ home runs -135
Under  28½ home runs +105
J.D. Martinez
Over  25½ home runs -130
Under  25½ home runs +100
Maikel Franco
Over  27½ home runs -115
Under  27½ home runs -115
Brian Dozier
Over  27½ home runs -140
Under  27½ home runs +110
Paul Goldschmidt
Over  29½ home runs +100
Under  29½ home runs -130
Trevor Story
Over  25½ home runs -150
Under  25½ home runs +120
Rougned Odor
Over  27½ home runs -115
Under  27½ home runs -115
Mookie Betts
Over  26½ home runs -115
Under  26½ home runs -115
Evan Longoria
Over  27½ home runs -115
Under  27½ home runs -115
Hanley Ramirez
Over  24½ home runs -115
Under  24½ home runs -115
Adam Duvall
Over  25½ home runs -130
Under  25½ home runs +100
Carlos Santana
Over  26½ home runs -115
Under  26½ home runs -115
Gary Sanchez
Over  25½ home runs -125
Under  25½ home runs -105
Kyle Seager
Over  25½ home runs -115
Under  25½ home runs -115
Robinson Cano
Over  26½ home runs -125
Under  26½ home runs -105
Corey Seager
Over  24½ home runs -115
Under  24½ home runs -115
Carlos Correa
Over  23½ home runs -130
Under  23½ home runs +100

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