World Series Odds as of May 2nd, 2017

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Updated: May 2, 2017

We are a month into the season and while basically every team is still in the race for the playoffs, there are some that have been doing much better than others. Key on the list is the Washington Nationals who have been the best offense team in baseball thus far. Those sort of things happen when Ryan Zimmerman finally gets healthy and shares a lineup with Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper. The loss of Adam Eaton hurts, but this team has improved their chances quite a bit over the first few weeks.

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The opposite can be said about the Toronto Blue Jays. The loss of Josh Donaldson didn’t help, but their offense has been terrible thus far and the team is really struggling. Troy Tulowitzki has been injured as well, but he wasn’t that great before that. Kendrys Morales, Jose Bautista and Steve Pearce have all let down as well. The sad thing is the starting pitching has actually been really good led by Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada, JA Happ and Francisco Liriano. It’s hard to see this team doing much improving as there isn’t outside help to come. The veterans just need to hit better.

Another team in big trouble is San Francisco. They went into this season as, at worst, the Wild Card favorite in the National League. An injury to Madison Bumgarner and a 10-17 start has this team projected for just 79.5 wins. I’d say they aren’t quite as out of it as the Jays are yet thanks to the NL being weaker, but their spots definitely seems to have been usurped by the Diamondbacks and Rockies.

Let’s take a look at the current playoff odds over at FanGraphs sorted by World Series odds.

2017 Year to Date 2017 Projected Standings / Playoff Probabilities
Team W L EXPW EXPL WS Odds
Indians 14 11 94.2 67.8 17.30%
Dodgers 14 13 94.4 67.6 17.10%
Cubs 13 12 93.8 68.2 15.20%
Astros 17 9 92.9 69.1 12.60%
Nationals 17 8 94.4 67.6 11.30%
Red Sox 13 12 89.2 72.8 9.40%
Yankees 15 9 85.1 76.9 3.10%
Cardinals 12 13 84.1 77.9 2.10%
Mets 11 14 82.4 79.6 1.50%
Orioles 16 8 82.7 79.3 1.40%
Tigers 13 12 81.9 80.1 1.30%
Blue Jays 9 17 79.3 82.7 1.10%
Diamondbacks 16 11 82.8 79.2 1.00%

Despite the shaky starts, the Cubs and Dodgers are still the big favorites in the National League. Despite their hot start, the Nationals are still behind those two teams in the grand scheme of things according to these odds. The same will be true when we look at the World Series betting odds. While I am definitely buying on the Nationals, it is still just one month.

The Cubs +385 and Indians +640 have the best odds to make the World Series from a gambling standpoint, but the best values on this board are probably the Dodgers +1250 and the Astros +825. FanGraphs has the Dodgers at 17.1% to make the World Series and the Astros are the next best in the AL after the Indians at 12.6%.

Los Angeles is probably the most interesting team out there. They’ve struggled early, but they just have an endless supply of starting pitchers and tons of young talent in the minors to call up. Clayton Kershaw has looked great this year and the offense has been carried by Corey Seager and Justin Turner. Cody Bellinger had a nice cup of coffee last week with the team and we have to think that he’ll be back before it’s all said and done. That is a game changer in this lineup. The question with them will be the pitching and bullpen. Kershaw is great and so is Kenley Jansen, but we saw in the playoffs last year that they struggled beyond that. Rich Hill could be the answer (although he wasn’t against Chicago last year) and Grant Dayton looks strong in the bullpen. Julio Urias could be an answer as well. I love this team, but it just feels like there is something missing. We’ll have to see what happens.

Full World Series odds from 5Dimes are below:

2017 World Series Odds

Chicago Cubs +385
Cleveland Indians +640
Boston Red Sox +665
Houston Astros +825
Washington Nationals +825
Los Angeles Dodgers +1250
New York Yankees +1400
New York Mets +1800
Baltimore Orioles +2275
Colorado Rockies +2800
St. Louis Cardinals +2800
Arizona Diamondbacks +3300
Detroit Tigers +3300
Seattle Mariners +4000
Texas Rangers +4000
Pittsburgh Pirates +5000
San Francisco Giants +5000
Toronto Blue Jays +5000
Miami Marlins +5250
Kansas City Royals +8000
Los Angeles Angels +8000
Minnesota Twins +8000
Tampa Bay Rays +8000
Chicago White Sox +15000
Oakland Athletics +15000
Philadelphia Phillies +15000
Atlanta Braves +20000
Milwaukee Brewers +20000
Cincinnati Reds +25000
San Diego Padres +25000

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